What are we Thinking?

If this is right, we’ve got it all wrong

I love polls and surveys—though they should have the warning that they are for recreational purposes only. I’m well aware that how and of whom you ask the question dictates the answer. Pollsters are adept at disguising the fact with shorter click-bait headlines.

You will get an entirely different answer if you ask: Do you like dogs and Do you like dogs with fleas. When you know what answer you desire, you merely have to phrase the question in that light.

This poll, which can be found here: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/15/americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population shows that:

When it comes to estimating the size of demographic groups, Americans rarely get it right. In two recent YouGov polls, we asked respondents to guess the percentage (ranging from 0% to 100%) of American adults who are members of 43 different groups, including racial and religious groups, as well as other less frequently studied groups, such as pet owners and those who are left-handed. 

When people’s average perceptions of group sizes are compared to actual population estimates, an intriguing pattern emerges: Americans tend to vastly overestimate the size of minority groups. This holds for sexual minorities, including the proportion of gays and lesbians (estimate: 30%, true: 3%), bisexuals (estimate: 29%, true: 4%), and people who are transgender (estimate: 21%, true: 0.6%). 

It also applies to religious minorities, such as Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%). And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%).

Further down in the fine print, they reveal their methodology. The results were derived from 2,000 people who responded to two online surveys.

That’s a pretty small sample size for a country of 330,000,000, but the results are staggering, especially as we tend to make decisions based on them. Even if the results were skewed, they would have to be so by 10 for many of the answers.

How do results get that far off? Look at our entertainment. TV shows, movies, musicians, and sports all represent the above groups by the numbers. To be inclusive shows and movies overrepresent ethnic and sociological groups. It makes money. Using the built-in conflicts of gays, mixed marriages, and religious affiliation makes the writing easier.

We recently watched Vera, a British detective show on BritBox. In the show, mixed-race couples (black and white) were represented at about 50% of couples shown. Both my better half and I had our suspicions. If the show was set in the US, I would know the couples misrepresented the current demographic. Because it was based in England, I looked it up and found that 7% of couples are mixed race. There is no specific breakdown of black and white, so I would suspect the true number is lower.

A writer aims to engage the audience. I do my best, but I try and correctly represent the true demographics of a region, in my case the Keys and South Florida.

There are a lot of other gaps between the poll numbers and reality. The misconception about income groups is also interesting. As it turns out the term “one percenter” is about right for people making over 1,000,000 annually (according to the survey it is statistically zero). But with the perception that twenty percent of people are in that income bracket a lot of resentment builds.

The bottom line is that we are being spoon-fed inaccurate information. Maybe on purpose and maybe not, but it is affecting laws and policies.